4.23% Growth: 3 Stocks to Buy Before the “Run It Hot” Economy Peaks

With the U.S. economy expanding at 4.23% GDP growth, investors are shifting from theory to action. In a so-called “run it hot” economy, the biggest gains often come from sectors that directly benefit from government spending, capital investment, and geopolitical uncertainty.

This actionable view skips the macro debate and goes straight to opportunity — highlighting three stock categories that historically perform well late in high-growth cycles.

Why High-Growth Economies Reward the Right Stocks

When growth accelerates, capital flows tend to concentrate in industries with pricing power and long-term demand visibility. According to market data tracked by S&P Global, late-cycle expansions often favor energy producers, infrastructure providers, and defense contractors.

These sectors are less sensitive to consumer slowdowns and more closely tied to government budgets and structural demand.

Stock #1: Energy — Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Energy stocks are classic beneficiaries of strong GDP growth. Higher industrial activity increases demand for oil, gas, and refined fuels, while geopolitical risk keeps prices elevated.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) stands out due to its scale, global reach, and disciplined capital spending. Unlike smaller producers, Exxon can sustain profitability even when commodity prices fluctuate.

Energy data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows continued demand resilience, supporting cash flows and dividends for large producers.

Stock #2: AI Infrastructure — Nvidia (NVDA)

Artificial intelligence isn’t just a software story — it’s an infrastructure arms race. Data centers, chips, and networking hardware are critical to sustaining AI-driven productivity gains.

Nvidia (NVDA) remains a central supplier of high-performance GPUs powering AI workloads across cloud providers and government agencies.

Investment trends tracked by McKinsey & Company suggest AI infrastructure spending is one of the fastest-growing capital expenditure categories in high-growth economies.

Investing without understanding the trend is dangerous. Read our full analysis on why this 4.23% growth might be a double-edged sword.

Stock #3: Defense — Lockheed Martin (LMT)

Defense spending tends to rise regardless of where the economy sits in the cycle, but high-growth periods often accelerate long-term procurement programs.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) benefits from multiyear contracts, strong government backing, and exposure to aerospace, missiles, and advanced defense systems.

According to budget data from the U.S. Department of Defense, defense modernization remains a priority even as interest rates stay elevated.

How to Think About Risk in a “Run It Hot” Market

While these stocks offer upside, timing still matters. High-growth environments can shift quickly if inflation resurges or monetary policy tightens further.

That’s why many investors balance opportunity with discipline — focusing on companies with strong cash flow, pricing power, and long-term demand rather than speculative plays.

A 4.23% GDP growth rate creates opportunity — but not evenly across the market. Energy, AI infrastructure, and defense stocks have structural advantages when the economy runs hot and capital spending accelerates.

Positioning early in high-quality names can matter far more than chasing hype once sentiment peaks.

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