President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have become a major factor in the 2026 midterm campaign. With Republicans holding narrow majorities in Congress, weakening presidential approval could affect how voters approach House and Senate races this November.
A September Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s overall approval at 32%, his lowest point in that polling series across his presidencies. Approval among Republicans also fell to 73%, down from 86% in January. The survey was conducted September 17–20 among 1,277 U.S. adults.
Cost of Living Is a Central Concern
Economic pressure is one of the clearest challenges facing the White House. Reuters/Ipsos found that only 17% approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living in its September survey.
An earlier August Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 47% of registered voters identified the cost of living as the single most important factor in their midterm vote. That makes prices, household budgets and energy costs important issues for congressional campaigns.
The Reuters/Ipsos September 2026 survey provides detailed national polling data on Trump’s approval and the midterm elections.
Republicans Face Narrow Congressional Margins
Republicans currently hold a 219–214 majority in the House and a 53–47 majority in the Senate. Those margins mean relatively small changes in competitive races could alter the balance of power.
In the Senate, Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to reach a majority. Competitive contests are drawing particular attention in states including Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.
The U.S. Congress provides official information about members, legislation and the institutional structure voters will determine in the midterms.
Generic Ballot Shows a Wider Challenge
National congressional polling also shows pressure on Republicans. A September Marist poll found 53% of registered voters preferred the Democratic candidate in their district when asked about a generic congressional ballot, compared with 41% for Republicans.
The same poll found Trump’s approval at 39%, with 53% strongly disapproving and 6% somewhat disapproving. It also found that 45% of voters described their congressional vote as mainly a vote against Trump, while 24% described it as mainly a vote for him.
The Marist Poll cautions that these figures represent national registered voters and do not directly determine individual House or Senate outcomes.
Why Approval Ratings Matter—but Do Not Decide Elections
Presidential approval can influence congressional campaigns, fundraising, turnout and party messaging. However, national polling does not translate directly into congressional seats.
House elections are decided district by district, while Senate control depends on individual statewide contests. Candidate quality, local issues, turnout and campaign organization can all affect those races.
The Federal Election Commission provides official information about federal elections, campaign finance and voting resources.
The November Test
The current numbers show a challenging political environment for Republicans, but they do not establish a final congressional result. Trump’s approval ratings, economic concerns and the national congressional ballot will remain closely watched as Election Day approaches.
For voters, the midterms will ultimately involve individual candidates and district- or state-level issues as well as national perceptions of the administration. The National Archives provides additional background on U.S. federal elections and the country’s electoral system.
With both congressional chambers operating on narrow margins, the 2026 midterms could significantly affect the legislative environment for the final two years of Trump’s current term. The polling provides a snapshot of the political climate—not a guaranteed forecast of what voters will decide.
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