By Vinod Ram 
As awards season heats up, speculation around the 98th Academy Awards is already dominating Hollywood conversations. Long before nominations are officially announced, industry insiders, critics, and film fans are debating which movies and performances will be celebrated — and which may be shockingly left out.
From buzzy festival favorites to unexpected box-office hits, here are the biggest Oscar snubs and surprises experts believe we could see in 2026.
Why Oscar Snubs and Surprises Matter
Oscar nominations often reflect more than just artistic merit. Campaign budgets, release timing, industry politics, and shifting voter demographics all play a role, according to reporting from Variety and other entertainment trade publications.
As the Academy continues to diversify its membership, traditional assumptions about “sure bets” are becoming less reliable — opening the door to both shocking omissions and unexpected nominees.
Potential Best Picture Snubs
Several critically acclaimed films may struggle to break into the crowded Best Picture lineup despite strong early buzz.
- High-budget prestige dramas that underperform commercially
- Streaming-exclusive releases with limited theatrical runs
- Genre films that blur the line between blockbuster and arthouse
According to trends tracked by Box Office Mojo, films balancing critical praise with audience reach tend to fare best.
Acting Categories: Where Surprises Happen Most
Acting races are often the most unpredictable. Breakout performances from lesser-known actors can suddenly eclipse established stars, especially when films resonate emotionally with voters.
Industry analysts point to recent Academy voting shifts reported by The Hollywood Reporter, suggesting that subtle, character-driven performances may outperform traditional Oscar-bait roles.
International Films Gaining Ground
One of the biggest trends heading into the 2026 Oscars is the continued rise of international cinema. Following the success of past global hits, voters appear more open than ever to non-English-language films.
Platforms like Netflix and Prime Video have also expanded global distribution, increasing visibility for international contenders.
Technical Categories: Quiet Surprises
Categories such as cinematography, editing, and visual effects often deliver unexpected nominees — particularly films that push technical boundaries.
Sci-fi and fantasy projects once overlooked are now gaining traction, as the Academy increasingly recognizes innovation alongside storytelling.
Big Studio Films That Could Be Shut Out
Major studio releases with massive marketing campaigns are not immune to Oscar disappointment. Films that prioritize spectacle over narrative depth may struggle despite commercial success.
As reported by Deadline Hollywood, awards momentum can shift quickly based on critics’ circles and guild nominations.
What to Watch Before Nomination Day
If you’re trying to predict Oscar surprises, keep an eye on:
- Golden Globe and Critics Choice results
- Guild awards (SAG, DGA, PGA)
- Late-season film releases gaining momentum
These precursors often signal where the Academy may defy expectations.
Oscar nominations are as much about timing and perception as they are about talent. As the 2026 ceremony approaches, surprises and snubs are inevitable — and often become the most talked-about moments of awards season.
Whether your favorite film makes the cut or not, the debate itself is part of what makes the Oscars a global cultural event.
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